Mala skola kladjenja

[LeonardoDrugi]

Najpre da kazem da veoma postujem ovaj forum, i da na njemu zaista trosim puno svog kladionicarskog vremena Ne desava se cesto da prepisujem tudje predloge, pogotovo izbegavam da stavljam svoj novac na tudje predloge, ali zaista gledam da iskoristim bilo koju informaciju, ili da naucim nesto iz sistema kladjenja nekog od interesantnih likova na forumu. Ono sto sam hteo da podelim sa vama jeste zucna, rekao bih istorijska rasprava na jednom drugom forumu izmedju dva kladionicara sa razlicitim pogledima na kladjenje. Tema je veoma interesantna, rekao bih i poucna, a moj jedini savet upucen vama jeste da se ne trudite uopste da se stavite na "jednu od zaracenih strana", jer su obe u pravu, ali svako na svoj nacin.
Najpre da napisem nekoliko uvodnih stvari
Na tom kladionicarskom forumu se pojavio lik pocetkom februara, i odmah na pocetku se predstavio kao pasionirani kladionicar. Pri tome je napomenuo da uopste ne prati sport na nacin kako ga mi ostali ludaci pratimo. Njegov sistem se svodi ukratko na njegovo licno odredjivanje kvota, parametara, i onda to uporedjuje sa kvotama profesionalnih kladionica. On najcesce izabere deset-petnaest utakmica, i kvote jednostavno uporedi. Najcesce se desi da su veoma identicne, ili priblizno identicne, ali se uvek dese i "iskakanja" i to drasticna. Po pravilu, uvek su u pitanju tri-cetiri-pet utakmica koje "odskoce", i to zapravo bude njegov predlog. Dakle, on nije imao pojma o igracima, povredama, izostancima, "vrucim terenima" "ekipama koje su besne i sada stvarno moraju da pobede"... i sl Jednostavno, njegove kvote su iskocile u odnosu na profesionalne kladionice, i on je to zeleo da podeli sa clanovima foruma. Ono sto je jos vaznije, jeste da on uopste nema sport koji izdvaja, vec je jednostavno izabrao da u mesecu februaru to bude basket. Da skratim, lik je stvarno bio uspesan, ali malo njih ga je pratilo, jer je lupao utakmice, kao prozor na promaji, odnosno birao je utakmice svih evropskih prvenstava, veoma cesto u rangu prvenstva u basketu u Salvadoru, na primer. Uglavnom, lik je skrenuo paznju na sebe, pre svega kao uspesan kladionicar, ali mnogo vise kao potpuno "uvrnut" lik koji se "nadmece" sa profesionalnim kladionicama. Posto je basket bio tema u mesecu februaru, velika odstupanja su se odnosile na handicap, ili igru over/under. Tako je dosao i poslednji vikend u februaru, lik je izneo svojih pet predloga, napomenuo da su to poslednji predlozi sto se tice basketa, i da se on okrece spanskom fudbalu, u narednom mesecu. Odmah nakon izbacivanja posta, a da utakmice jos nisu ni pocele, na njegov  post se "upecao" jedan forumas i popljuvao njegove predloge. Razlog su bili ludacki handicap-i, protivno svakoj logici, a pogotovo imajuci u vidu izostanke, povrede i sl...Dakle, na jednoj strani smo imali pet predloga, potpuno van pameti, a na drugoj realne informacije, i sto je jos gore, pljuvanje predloga i pre nego sto su utakmice pocele. Narvno da se desilo da su na kraju glatko prosli svi predlozi, licni izazov je pobedio profesionalce, i sto je jos vaznije pojedinac je pobedio sistem. Ono sto bih zeleo da podelim sa vama jeste rasprava koja je usledila na forumu nakon toga. Od obicnog posta, rasprava se pretvorila u sledecih 41 post-ova. Iako je rasprava veoma zanimljiva, sa vama bih podelio samo istorijski post "pobednika" koji je popljuvan pre nego sto su utakmice i pocele, a uz to je i atipican kladionicar, iz koga izbija kladionicarska strast koja se retko vidja. Dakle, pred vama je njegov post, a po duzini se odmah vidi o kakvom ludaku se radi. Uzivajte

 

This is interesting now. What I will write now, it could be much better than any my pick. Because you know,... if I gave my grandmother to pick european basketball in february, even she could have positive month or even better results than me. 
Those picks, that I posted here are very small sample size. A lot of luck is involved. 
What I see from your post, you are probably rookie bettor. I know, everyone will say now, that he is in business for 10 years or so. I don't know about this, what I see are your posts only and based on that I can make some conclusions, which are flawless too and need further investigation  . But also some people are rookie bettors for 10 years, some will understand what is going on in one year. 
When I started betting in 1998 I was the same. After I hit couple of games, I thought I was the best and was laughing about others. Then I lost all my money and realized, that this is not that easy anyway. And sometimes is better to think twice before you throw some words out of your mouth. But life is long and every morning you have a chance to start doing things differently... 

Imagine any older guy, like Macot for example to make "lol" posts - it is below his reputation. It's not gonna happen. Forum like this are for discussion. Everyone has some good information and when you collect all those information together, your chance to win can increase. This should be the main purpose of forums like this. 
Because of quality posters, forum will get more and more followers and that is money for them as well. 

However, there is a big difference between recreational bettors or sports fans, as I like to call them and the other let's say professional. I don't like to be involved in discussion what is tipster, bettor, punter, handicapper, because this is not important. People argue about this to show, that they know something about sports betting, but those terms are the least important thing here. We can call them apples or bananas. 

What is important in sports betting is to understand the concept and at the end of the day - to find a value. Not the team, that "will" win, but the value. 

Why? 
Because the odds are the prices if you like. probabilities turned into the "number". Right. This is the most important thing, because this is what you will pay. Right?

So, how do you evaluate those probabilities or if you like - the odds?

You need some information. Right? Data, info,..
Then you need to analyse it somehow. Right?
And then you make a descision. Right?

So MNTipster, I ask you now: How you find the value? 
Or you just "follow" the sport?
Do you think, that when you know with what kind of bus the team is going going from Belgrade to Zagreb, that this is valuable information? Maybe it is maybe it is not - I don't know. But those are kind of information that people think are important and they think they know more than others. At the same time, they don't know how to make simple regression in excel for example, which is way more important than information about the "bus".

When I said, that I don't follow basketball, I mean that I don't know the players, the teams and background information. Or if you like I don't know the information, which most sports fans/recreational bettors have. 
And those "sports fans" represent 98% of people who lose on the long run. So, what they know?
-They know the name of the teams. So what? Even my grandmother can read this info
-They know who went to funeral, who is injured,.... So what? Buy news - and you have it. 
-They know the name of the fans. So what? 
-They know or at least they think they know which team is more motivated. 
-They know what kind of colors team has.
-They know the name of arena where they play
-They know what is the standings
-They know some other psychological moments and they probably have better intuition, because they watch this sport. Because of intuition, they will hit 4-5 games per year, where everyone else will lose. But can they make 400 plays like this? NO.
-And they probably have some other info that I forgot....

So, this is basically maybe only 30% that is important when you make final bets... 

The other 70%, which is very important is how to find the value, set the lines, probabilities.... Of course, value can be based on intuition as well. Right? But how long will you make those intuition plays until you start losing?

So, how do you find the value? So, how you set your own lines? Yes, you maybe follow this sport. But this is just 30%. (Don't get me wrong - I don't know what is your betting method - I am taling in general)

On other side if I try to set my own lines and compare them with bookmakers, I am the guy who owns 70% not you :-)

So, who is crazy now?  

Quote:
Originally Posted by MNtipster  View Post
just strange to bet on something and not know nothing...

Cheers
For me is strange to bet on games, when you don't know your own lines. You bet basically based on your 30% unimportant information. This is strange for me. Yes, of course... I also made some intuition plays, but I would lose on the long run. 
Ok, let's turn things around little bit. I believe, that that guy emurli knows more about turkish league than bookmakers and from me for sure. But he probably knows more about unimportant things like this - that Carsi are besiktas fans, that some player has flu,... What is important for bookmakers is that they can set their lines. Of course with all kind of info they have. Do you think, that they set lines based on their intuition? Or based solely on information - who is on funeral or which wife is cheating? Definitely no.

Ok, let's make your own test (I don't know how you bet an how you set your probabilities, but let's say - you "follow"  sport like 98% recreational bettors). Set your own lines for basketball before bookmakers set them. Then compare them with bookmakers lines. How will you do this? I hope you agree, that finding a value is the key for success. Right? So, how you do this?

You see, I was paid sports betting advisor in the past for 3-4 years and this was the worst decision. Most people don't understand the basics and it was most stressful time of my life. But ok, I tried, I didn't liked and I ended. Sports betting world is like one pub of old fat guys drinking that brag about themselves how they won a ticket in 2003. And they are all experts. When you have 50 guys like this in the pub, it is hard to discuss about logistic regression with them. And if you sell picks to them, this is the same if you sell them a bomb and they don't know how to activate it safely. Even if this bomb is good and safe, if they don't know how to use it, they will kill themselves. 
This is why I am not supporter of paid betting services and I will never sell picks. It brings more headache then anything else. And what is interesting is that those services spend 80% of their time for marketing and only 20% of their time for sports betting. 

Most of them will never make long posts like this, because they are more occupied on facebook spamming all kind of sites. Or looking for mistakes of other bettors on forums and writing short messages where they put "LOL" at the end. 

I think sports betting services bring more bad than enything else. But of course, I also respect couple of them, that are good and it is also not fair, that someone spend 12 hours per day to anlalyse games and the other guy just sits and make money. I also understand, why some sell their advice. 

But ok, this is another topic. 

At the end of the day, everyone who is here and posts has his own intention. Right?

Sharing info, free picks, discussion, friends,... But I think everyone, who posts here - wants respect. If you make a valuable post - this is good. And with every post you make you can make positive post or negative post. Positive post is the post, where you give some value to the forum and you can call it +1 post. Even if you only support someone who has hard time and is on a bad streak, sometimes a positive word can give him some motivation. But if you give posts with no value, when you try to mock someone or try to make laugh at someone, when your posts don't include anything valuable, then your posts are -1. If you are better than someone else - help him and you will be respected. If you are not that good, make posts, make mistakes, because you will learn. We all make mistakes, we all grow and it is nothign bad if you say something today and tomorrow you grow and start thinking differently. 

Don't understand me wrong. We are here to learn and i will learn until the end of my life. I will probably never be the best and every time, when I will try to beat the bookmaker i will need to work hard and I will need to improve. Bookmakers don't sit and watch. They are a machine. And more important then getting good picks is to work on you as a person. Stop with negativity and non-value/negative posts and turn this energy into something more valuable. 

You know.... even if I don't "follow" basketball and even if I post some stupid picks here and even if I am the worst handicapper here, when you post some negative posts - it is (-1) for you. And you know what? You can learn from the worst bettors too. Not only in sports betting. Also in your life. When you see homeless and one very successfull man, if you are smart, you can learn from both. 

I follow two sports - MLB and NHL. Or if you like - am also a sports fan of those sports. I go deeper with that 30% of information. I even play some fantasy leagues. I know about all the girls Derek Jeter had (goolge him - this is a one nice list of girls  ). But at the end of the day, I need to exclude all those stupid "follow sport" information and I must turn into cold-blooded analyst without any emotions - and numbers help me with that. 

I think, everyone can make a profit in sports betting without following anyone else. Some will have yield 10%, some 5%, some less, but I believe, that everyone can maka profit. I am not the best, I never said that I am the best, but I understand the things. I know people, who talk about sports betting, they even write books and they are some authority and I don't know if they ever placed a bet. 
But those are all kind information, that you can collect. You know, when I started betting, there was no forums like this. We all have huge advantage now. Yes, of course, also bookmaers are much better, but also we are better. 

I wanted to challenge myself in other sports too. I spend anyway a lot of time for NHL and MLB, but I said, that I will try to bet other sports and leagues but I will use only numbers (so "70%" if you like  ). Because I saw that I started well, I decided that I will share it here. 
I was hoping, that people will give that other information (that 30%). That information from people, sports fans, who FOLLOW that sport. 
Also I am very thankful for every comment, that doesn't agree with me, but only if there is explanation. "LOL" posts don't help anyone. 
I am not the best and I make all kind of mistakes. Maybe in 5 years i will realize, that everything that I am talking right now is wrong. But this is called progress, this is called learning, improving. And this is the most important thing. 

I posted my lines and I use pretty simple method. I challenge myself if I can can make a profit. I also said, that I don't follow that sport, because I don't have time to read all the news about polish basketball league and how many tickets was sold on Tarnobrzeg games. But of course if you are smart you can use this as a base or one part of your analysis and then you can adjust it for yourself. 
I don't say, that my numbers are ok. In fact it is flawless, becasue I need to include other things too but I don't have motivation to go deeper with that. But still even if I used simple model, my lines are pretty same then bookmakers lines. And because I don't know all the info I take for the picks only the lines which are much different than bookmakers lines. I didn't posted all my picks here. But I have 57 picks this month, which is very very small sample size and we can not make any conclusion. 
I went 35-20-2 (63.63%) in February. Will I hold that win% on the long run? Probably not.

At the end of this post I will say one thing only. Most people run for money and they will do everything for it. I was the same in the past. 
But I don't look at the thing like this anyore. For me it is more important how I make money, than how much I make. I want to do it right. Sports betting is my passion. Money is not everything. 

Cheers!