Of course there are many different ways of finding value in picks, many require good knowledge, experience and time. But I will talk about courage. Betting is a part of life and everyone who is winning in sports betting will be a winner in real life as well. A winner makes the right decisions, he has a free mind and will find a way to deal with difficult situations and bad times. There isn't a big difference between running a company successfully, getting the girl you want and winning in sports betting.
Courage and uniqueness are keywords when it comes to describing a winner's character.
What does this has to do with betting? Why are 99% of all bettors losers? Cause they think too normal. A winner will always think outside the box. If you wanna be an average guy the best idea to survive is to be an average guy. Like the average fish swimming in the bunch of fishes. But the winner thinks differently, he doesn't swim inside the bunch, he wants to lead the bunch. The winning sports bettor doesn't follow the common opinion or the media or his friends.
The loser thinks about the match Barcelona - Chelsea: "Barcelona will win for sure!". The winner thinks:"How often will Barcelona fail?".
The most common mistake in this world is underestimating the underdog and overestimating the favorite. The Sowjets did it in Afghanistan and the USA did it there as well. You shouldn't be as stupid as them. Turn it into your advantage!
The great mass of people always favor big teams and like to place their money on the favorite. It always feels better to have your money on Barcelona than on Levante. But this is a mislead by our brain. We always wanna be on the winner's side and Barcelona impresses the whole world with their style of football but it's Levante which make your bankroll growing. You need the courage to believe in the underdogs! And you will be a winner!
Many guys only focus on the big teams like Barca, Real, ManUtd, Munich, Galatasaray or Milan but for a bettors it is way more profitable to follow the matches of the small teams closely. The market and the public tends to divide the world into black and white, good and evil or good and bad. A team like Wigan, Gladbach or Levante is always considered as bad while teams like Marseille, Real, Liverpool or Inter are always considered as great teams.
The typical human being is stubborn, he doesn't want to change his opinion as he fears to be wrong. And this is exactly where you can make a lot of money. The people like their stereotypes and they need much time to change their way of thinking. There is always a delay until the market adjusts the odds after a team improved or got worse. This moment you have to find and then you can place your money and you will win.
Every season there are cash cows, teams which are underrated or overrated. In Germany Gladbach was underrated this season, in England Newcastle. Teams like Liverpool, Inter or Marseille were completely overrated.
Every team has their own form curve which you have to know, every good team will have bad times and bad teams will have good days. If you see a team improving then use the delay of odds to your advantage, put your money on this team. For example in Germany Augsburg and Freiburg were on relegation spots in winter and nobody gave them a chance to survive but then they improved and played a great year 2012. They made their supporters the most happiest guys in the world and every smart bettor rich. Take a look at Wigan, they had 16 points after 24 rounds and in the last 6 weeks they have beaten Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester United and Newcastle.
What are my advices to you:
- Think outside the box, think differently!
- Never overestimate the favorite, never underestimate the underdog!
- Use the delay of oddsadjustment to your advantage!
- Wait until the bad teams are in a good form !
- Wait until the good teams are in a bad form!
- Have the courage to bet on underdogs!
Good luck to all!